what to wear when it gets really cold

An Oregonian seeks advice from the Midwestern and New England delegates.
Hopefully you can do this without laughing.
I'm used to riding in the rain, been doing it for nearly 40 years, got it down pat.
But the forecast for this weekend's USGP calls for a drop in temps, partly cloudy with sunbreaks, and a high of 40 degrees (the lows will be near 30 and I am racing very early in the morning). This is cold weather for us, and without the rain to warm things up it will feel really frosty.

In my profile photo, you will note that I am clad in my team kit, which I got used from another member and which fits, ahem, snugly. This makes base layer selection a crapshoot.

I have already given up on the very thin team shorts and leg warmers and will instead wear shorts under my vintage PI tights with the lime green (yesss!) insulated knees. Up top, I still ought to wear the team jersey, but what can I wear under it that won't make me feel like the Michelin Lady and will still keep me warm and give me decent freedom of movement? Shockingly, I have a little budget left over at the end of my season so I can splurge just a bit, assuming it can be found at my local, highly-upscale bike boutique.

Suggestions?